O impacto do gasto discricionário do governo sobre o desacordo de expectativas para a taxa de câmbio: evidências empíricas para uma economia em desenvolvimento / The impact of government discretionary spending on the exchange rate expectations disagreement: empirical evidence for a developing economy

Paulo Henrique Lourenço Luna

Abstract


Neste artigo, investigamos se um aumento do gasto discricionário do governo tem impacto negativo no processo de formação de expectativas para a taxa de câmbio. Pelo fato do Brasil adotar o regime de metas para inflação, e uma vez que existem evidências apontando que um aumento do desacordo de expectativas para a taxa de câmbio afeta negativamente o processo de formação de expectativas para a taxa de juros e a inflação brasileira, é importante identificar o que gera incertezas no processo de formação de expectativas em relação ao comportamento futuro da taxa de câmbio. Assim, utilizando diferentes técnicas econométricas (OLS, GMM, GMM-2 e regressão quantílica), encontramos evidências indicando que o aumento do gasto discricionário do governo provoca um maior desacordo de expectativas em relação a taxa de câmbio brasileira, gerando mais incertezas quanto ao comportamento futuro desta variável.


Keywords


gasto discricionário; taxa de câmbio; desacordo de expectativas; incertezas.

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.34117/bjdv6n4-425

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