O impacto do gasto discricionário do governo sobre o desacordo de expectativas para a taxa de câmbio: evidências empíricas para uma economia em desenvolvimento / The impact of government discretionary spending on the exchange rate expectations disagreement: empirical evidence for a developing economy

Authors

  • Paulo Henrique Lourenço Luna

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.34117/bjdv6n4-425

Keywords:

gasto discricionário, taxa de câmbio, desacordo de expectativas, incertezas.

Abstract

Neste artigo, investigamos se um aumento do gasto discricionário do governo tem impacto negativo no processo de formação de expectativas para a taxa de câmbio. Pelo fato do Brasil adotar o regime de metas para inflação, e uma vez que existem evidências apontando que um aumento do desacordo de expectativas para a taxa de câmbio afeta negativamente o processo de formação de expectativas para a taxa de juros e a inflação brasileira, é importante identificar o que gera incertezas no processo de formação de expectativas em relação ao comportamento futuro da taxa de câmbio. Assim, utilizando diferentes técnicas econométricas (OLS, GMM, GMM-2 e regressão quantílica), encontramos evidências indicando que o aumento do gasto discricionário do governo provoca um maior desacordo de expectativas em relação a taxa de câmbio brasileira, gerando mais incertezas quanto ao comportamento futuro desta variável.

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Published

2020-04-30

How to Cite

Luna, P. H. L. (2020). O impacto do gasto discricionário do governo sobre o desacordo de expectativas para a taxa de câmbio: evidências empíricas para uma economia em desenvolvimento / The impact of government discretionary spending on the exchange rate expectations disagreement: empirical evidence for a developing economy. Brazilian Journal of Development, 6(4), 22531–22548. https://doi.org/10.34117/bjdv6n4-425

Issue

Section

Original Papers