The virus and socioeconomic inequality: An agent-based model to simulate and assess the impact of interventions to reduce the spread of COVID-19 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil / O vírus e a desigualdade socioeconômica: um modelo baseado em agentes para simular e avaliar o impacto de intervenções para reduzir a disseminação do COVID-19 no Rio de Janeiro, Brasil

Vinícius Prata Klôh, Gabrieli Dutra Silva, Mariza Ferro, Eric Araújo, Cristiano Barros de Melo, José Roberto Pinho de Andrade Lima, Ernesto Rademaker Martins


The emergence of COVID-19 in China, in December of 2019 led to a local epidemic that rapidly spread to multiple countries in the world, including Brazil.  Nowadays, there is an accelerated search to understand the dynamics of the spread of the disease and evaluate the effectiveness of intervention measures.  Given these special socioeconomic conditions surrounding Brazil, using the  predictive  models  developed  for  other  countries  can  make  a  very  incomplete picture of the epidemic,  since these differences could result in different patterns in low income settings.  The aim of this work is to simulate interventions and understand the impact to reduce the spread of COVID-19 considering the  socioeconomic  conditions  of  Brazil.   With  this  purpose  we  use  an  agent- based model (ABM), a subarea of the Artificial Intelligence, as it allows us to treat each individual in a personalized manner, as well as the environment of which they are part.  The simulations have heterogeneous populations, considering different age groups, socioeconomic differences and number of members per family, contacts and movements intra and inter the sub-populations (favelas and non-favelas), numbers of Intensive Care Unit (ICU) and study different scenarios to show how the interventions can influence the spread of the virus in the population of simulated environments.


COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2;agent-based modeling; favelas; slums; simulation; artificial intelligence

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