Estimated number of deaths, confirmed cases and duration of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Brazil / Estimativa de número de óbitos, casos confirmados e duração da Pandemia COVID-19 no Brasil

Carlos Maximiliano Dutra, Fabiane Moreira Farias, Matheus Gabina Madrid, Carlos Augusto Riella de Melo


The COVID-19 Pandemic began at the end of February 2020 in Brazil and the number of infected has been growing at an accelerated rate surpassing 2 million cases in July 2020, despite the high underreporting evidenced. In the present study, we considered the recorded data of deaths by COVID-19 according to the Ministry of Health to estimate the temporal evolution of COVID-19 in Brazil. The method of nonlinear regression adjustment of the Gompertz growth function was adjusted for the COVID-19 death data set of the States of Brazil. As results we estimated the following numbers for the PANDEMIC COVID-19 in Brazil: total number of deaths of 165,208 and total number of confirmed cases 5,506,933 (assuming case fatality rate of 3%). It is also estimated when in each State of Brazil will be reached 95% of the predicted deaths due to COVID-19: by the end of November 2020 for 21 States; by the first week of December/2020 for 2 States; only in 2021 for 4 other states, São Paulo will reach in March/2021. Emphasizing that these estimates are in accordance with the pace of pandemic development recorded in the evolution of the numbers of the disease so far, considering the effects of preventive measures of contagion, the ability to identify infected patients via testing and the capacity of care of the Brazilian health system. New scenarios of evolution of COVID-19 can be built in Brazil, better or worse, according to individual, social, business, and governmental actions.


covid-19, predicted, estimated, coronavirus, gompertz, deaths, epidemiology

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